BUSINESS AND THE 1920s
Lecture Two:  The Economics of Republicanism


Andrew Mellon

mellon
Andrew Mellon

Now elected President on his own, Calvin Coolidge set out to practice and preach his religion of business.  The United States, he declared, was a business country and wanted a business government.  He set out to give them just that.

Perhaps the best indication of how Cal was going to lead the country is symbolized in his appointment of the man to head the Treasury--Andrew Mellon.  Andrew Mellon incarnated the new Republican experiment:  he was a banker from Philadelphia, now in charge of regulating the monetary affairs of all the banks in the country--in short, somewhat akin to putting the fox in charge of the henhouse.

Mellon said that government was just a business, and should be run on business principles.  His first priority was to balance the budget, and his second was to pay off the national debt.  But most of all, he wanted to lower the surtax on the rich.  He thought that paying a rate any higher than 25% would rob American businessmen of their initiative.  He favored a tax bill giving tax breaks to millionaires, but even in the pro-business Twenties, such a bill was not entirely popular.  But Mellon kept at it, each year chipping away more and more of the tax burden on the upper brackets.


Tax reduction wasn't Mellon's only resource.  When he could not get a reduction, then he could offer a refund--a process which had the advantage of taking place behind closed doors.  Not until the 1930s was it revealed to the nation exactly what Mellon had done.  In his first eight years at the Treasury, Mellon had dispensed $3.5 billion in the form of cash refunds, credits, and abatements.  Several million dollars went to Mellon's own companies; other millions went to those who promised to do the most good to the Republican party.  Each of the 17 individuals contributing $10,000 to the Republican campaign in 1930 had benefited from Mellon's official generosity.

Meanwhile, Mellon himself continued to speculate.  In 1926, Mellon's relatives made more than $300 million in the bull market on aluminum and Gulf Oil alone.  Nor was that the end of the possibilities of family corporations.  He wrote to the Commissioner of the Internal Revenue Service:  "Pursuant to your request for a memorandum ...[on] the various ways by which an individual may legally avoid tax, I am pleased to submit the following."  The following consisted of ten methods of tax avoidance, five of which Mellon in time admitted under oath he had actually employed.  The Commissioner, in return, sent a tax expert to help Mellon with his personal tax returns; the expert even turned up on Mellon's personal payroll, using the knowledge gained in public service for the Secretary's private benefit.  It was this expert who set up even more family corporations and, through paper losses in stock sales among them, enabled the Secretary to slash his tax payments at a time when, in his official capacity, Mellon was appealing to taxpayers to pay their own income taxes.

Mellon's tax programs not only had contradictions in ethics--it contained contradictions in economics as well.  Because, while tax reduction might act as a sedative on the national economy, it also freed up money for speculation.  This added more fuel to an ongoing speculative boom which hardly needed more encouragement.  Yet this was what the business community said that it wanted.

All Roads Lead to
Wall Street

There were other elements in the Republican experiment.  One was the tariff.  Wilson, in one of his last acts as President, had vetoed raising the protective tariff on imports.  He knew that the only way other countries could reasonably gain the income necessary to purchase American goods was to export goods themselves.  The only other ways that European countries could obtain money was either to borrow it from us or sell gold to us, neither of which Wilson felt would be good for trade in the long run.  He realized that you could not long carry out a policy that, while beneficial at home, was damaging to your trading partner's economy.  That kind of trade would not last long. Towards this end, he favored low barriers on both sides.  Not the Republicans.  Coolidge favored a higher tariff.  (In 1924, Congress passed the high Fordney-McCumber Tariff.)  Moreover, his Secretary of Commerce, Herbert Hoover, favored allowing Europeans countries to pay for American goods with money borrowed from American banks.  And why not?  By letting them borrow from American banks, New York bankers would be able to collect the interests on those loans, as well as the profits from the sale of goods.  In the Republican governmental experiment, one government hand neatly washed the other hand in business, and vice versa.

In the same way that Coolidge had appointed a banker, Andrew Mellon, to head the regulatory agency of banks, so he now appointed businessmen to run the regulatory agency of business, the Federal Trade Commission (FTC).  The new head of the FTC, W.E. Humphrey, viewed the FTC as an instrument of oppression for business.  Under his guidance, he declared that the agency would no longer serve as "a publicity bureau to spread socialistic propaganda."  He set out to drastically change policies and procedures within the FTC.  Whereas the FTC had been set up to discourage monopoly, it now espoused the cause of self-regulation of business, sponsoring industry-wide "trade associations" through which an industry could police itself.

Washington thus began to smile upon tendencies towards
economic concentration, which, for the better part of a century, it had, in theory at least, disapproved.  Hoover, in the Commerce Dept., favored these trade associations, and helped to work out codes, which were then endorsed by the FTC and adopted by industry.  These codes in some cases provided fronts behind which businessmen could conspire to evade the antitrust law.

More overt forms of concentration thrived equally.  Holding companies moved into utilities and transportation, chain stores moved into distribution; in all areas, big firms swallowed small firms and merged with other big ones.  By 1930, two hundred of the country's largest non-banking corporations controlled more than fifty precent of the nations' corporate wealth.  And from the viewpoint of the Republican-controlled government, the nation's wealth could not be in safer hands.

On the surface, this view did not seem unjustified.  The economy of the Twenties boomed.  Living standards rose and economic opportunities expanded.  The imagination of the American capitalist and the American engineer had never been more apparent to the people.  For a time, the country seemed to be on the edge of a new abundance.

Yet the very process of plenty created problems.  The most important fact was the
increase in technological efficiency and productivity.  The output per man-hour rose about forty percent during the decade.  The central economic challenge would be to distribute the gains of productivity in ways that would maintain employment and prosperity.

By the rules of orthodox economics, the reduction in production costs brought about by new technology and efficiency should have brought about either a reduction in prices, a rise in wages, or both.  But the rigidity of the economy, in part symbolized by the increasing concentration of wealth, interfered with the normal response between business and the market.  Prices remained high, and wages low. 

One reason wages remained low was because of the poor bargaining power of the
unions.  Unions had suffered as a result of the postwar strikes, and as a result, businessmen were able to monopolize the gains of increasing productivity.  Just to give an example of the disparity:  profits rose over eighty percent as a whole, or twice as much as productivity; and the profits of financial institutions rose a staggering one-hundred fifty percent.

The increase in profits naturally pushed up the prices of corporate securities; and as securities rose in value, corporations found that the easiest way to obtain new cash was to issue more securities.  This was cheap money, because there was no need to pay a return on stock issues the way you would have to pay interest on a loan from a bank.  Corporations then plowed the money back into increasing production, which pushed more goods onto an already flooded market; or, as time passed, they funneled more funds into speculation.  The result was to push stocks up again, and start the whole process anew at an even higher level.  So as the Twenties proceeded, the value of stocks continued to spiral upward, and the stock market continued to suck off an increasing share of the nations's profits, and so money was kept out of circulation and failed to be distributed downward to the wage-earner.

The
stock market boom had not always been artificial; it had its origins in solid industrial expansion, such as that brought on by the auto industry and its associated supply.  But the diversion of gains into profits rather than wages would eventually result in a fall in the people's purchasing power.   Because of Mellon's tax policy, with its emphasis on tax relief for millionaires rather than consumers, created a maldistribution of income and stimulated oversaving.  By 1929, the 2.3% of the population with incomes over $10,000 were responsible for two-thirds of the 15 billion dollars in savings.  The 60,000 families in the nation with the highest incomes saved almost as much as the bottom 25 million.  What this meant was that the richest Americans were not spending their money to purchase goods, and the rest of the country did not have the purchasing power to absorb the amount of goods being poured of the new, efficient assembly lines.

Rural people were hurt by the agricultural depression.  Farmers lost many of their markets after the war, and the resulting sag in agricultural income built a basic imbalance in the economy.  But the Republican administration just couldn't quite get as worked up over the problems of farmers as they could over businessmen.  Coolidge, himself the son of a farmer, said:  "Farmers have never made money.  I don't believe we can do much about it."  With Washington unwilling to help them, farmers fell further behind the rest of the nation, and the agricultural half of the economy could not do its share in maintaining demand for farm goods.

As for city people, whose wages failed to keep pace with productivity, they received no more help from Washington that the farmers.  While businessmen might talk a good deal in public about American faith in high wages, in practice they let the percentage of wages lag behind the rise of output and profit.  Between 1923 and 1929, output per man-hour in manufacturing rose thirty-two percent, while hourly wages rose only slightly over eight percent.

The unsatisfactory level of wages and farm income meant that "prosperity" was steadily less able to generate
buying power in sufficient volume to meet the steadily rising productive capacity--or, in other words, in time to carry goods off the market.

Finally, all of this was worsened in the end by the country's
weak banking structure .  By the mid-Twenties, the whole economic process was focused on a single point--the stock market.  The aim of business now seemed to always be maintaining the prices of securities, or floating new ones.  In order to float and maintain these securities, corporations invented holding companies and new investment trusts.  Soon, the financial structure was so intricate, it was not certain that anyone could decipher it.  But for the moment, no one cared.  All they cared about was the endlessly spinning roulette wheel on Wall Street.

 Speculative loans were on the increase. 
"Brokers' loans" were issued to customers by brokers so that customers could speculate in stocks that were far beyond their means to purchase.  "Buying on the margin" meant using brokers' loans to buy stock at only a fraction of their worth.  When brokers' loans were at twenty-five percent, this meant that one customer's hard dollar was worth four on the market.  With such a system, it seemed that everyone could get rich.

Government, meanwhile, looked on with benign approval.  The Federal Reserve System, established by Wilson as a means of steadying the economy, was now used to generate easy money.  In part, this was in deference to the situation in Europe.  By keeping interest rates low and credit cheap, the Board thought it could discourage the import of gold from Europe and make more American money available for foreign loans.  But the easy-money policy had the result of accelerating
inflation in the United States.

Soon, even sober businessmen were beginning to look with concern on the Frankenstein's Monster they'd created.  But every time the market seemed to falter, the administration could be relied on to speak words of encouragement.

Some economists spoke out.  In 1927, William Z. Ripley, a Harvard professor, protested the ongoing process whereby ownership was being dispersed, through issues of securities, while control remained ever tighter on Wall Street.  While stocks and bonds flowed from Wall Street to Main Street, power flowed from Main Street to Wall Street.  The consequence, Professor Ripley felt, was to encourage corporate secrecy and deceit.

By the end of 1927, brokers' loans went to nearly $4 billion mark.  To many, this seemed a wobbling basis for the nation's financial superstructure.  But on January 7, 1928, President Coolidge came to the rescue by saying that brokers' loans were a natural expansion of the securities market, and that he saw nothing wrong with it.  And so the market continued to rise.


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